ARCHIVE April 18, 2026
April 18, 2026 · AL Cent

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians

April 18, 2026Progressive FieldOvercast 53°F · 15 mph, L To R
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
10-11
2
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
12-10
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Dean Kremer
Dean Kremer
IP 6
HOME · CLE
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
  2. 2 Taylor Ward LF
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Dylan Beavers RF
  5. 5 Colton Cowser DH
  6. 6 Leody Taveras CF
  7. 7 Samuel Basallo C
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 3B
  9. 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 George Valera LF
  6. 6 Rhys Hoskins DH
  7. 7 Daniel Schneemann 2B
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 000100010 2
CLE 000030010 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
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HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 1-3 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost −0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.34
  • Player execution −1.34 R/G Players fell 1.34 short of the lineup's 3.34 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Alonso 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.03 vs actual lineup 3.96
  • Player execution +0.04 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.96 projection by 0.04 (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.03 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Naylor HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.0 — actual was 2 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.