ARCHIVE April 18, 2026
April 18, 2026 · AL West

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros

April 18, 2026Daikin ParkRoof Closed 73°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
St. Louis Cardinals
12-8
7
vs
HOME
Houston Astros
8-14
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · STL
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
IP 5
HOME · HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
Lance McCullers Jr.
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera C
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman DH
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Ramón Urías 3B
  8. 8 Nathan Church CF
  9. 9 José Fermín LF
HOME · HOU
  1. 1 Jose Altuve 2B
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
  3. 3 Carlos Correa SS
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Isaac Paredes DH
  6. 6 Taylor Trammell CF
  7. 7 Cam Smith RF
  8. 8 Christian Vázquez C
  9. 9 Shay Whitcomb 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
STL 202001110 7
HOU 100000013 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / D+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R
HOME · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
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HOME · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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Season series: 3-0 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.77
  • Player execution +2.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 2.23 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.80
  • Player execution +1.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.80 projection by 1.20 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Whitcomb HR from the 9-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.8 — actual was 7 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.