St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Ramón Urías 3B
- 8 Nathan Church CF
- 9 José Fermín LF
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
- 3 Carlos Correa SS
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Isaac Paredes DH
- 6 Taylor Trammell CF
- 7 Cam Smith RF
- 8 Christian Vázquez C
- 9 Shay Whitcomb 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.77
- Player execution +2.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 2.23 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.80
- Player execution +1.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.80 projection by 1.20 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Whitcomb HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.8 — actual was 7 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.