Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Sal Frelick RF
- 2 William Contreras C
- 3 Brice Turang 2B
- 4 Gary Sánchez DH
- 5 Jake Bauers 1B
- 6 Luis Rengifo 3B
- 7 Garrett Mitchell CF
- 8 Brandon Lockridge LF
- 9 Joey Ortiz SS
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
- 4 Liam Hicks C
- 5 Otto Lopez SS
- 6 Connor Norby 1B
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Heriberto Hernández LF
- 9 Javier Sanoja 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with MIL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.43
- Player execution +1.57 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.43 projection by 1.57 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Contreras 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.87 vs actual lineup 3.84
- Player execution −1.84 R/G Players fell 1.84 short of the lineup's 3.84 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ramírez 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 3.9 — actual was 5 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.