Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez 3B
- 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 7 Spencer Steer LF
- 8 Will Benson RF
- 9 Tyler Stephenson C
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers DH
- 5 Josh Bell 1B
- 6 Victor Caratini C
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Ryan Kreidler 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.74 vs actual lineup 3.81
- Player execution −1.81 R/G Players fell 1.81 short of the lineup's 3.81 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.75
- Player execution −3.75 R/G Players fell 3.75 short of the lineup's 4.75 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Keaschall 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.