ARCHIVE April 17, 2026
April 17, 2026 · AL Cent

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins

April 17, 2026Target FieldCloudy 43°F · 14 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Cincinnati Reds
12-8
2
vs
HOME
Minnesota Twins
11-9
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CIN
Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson
IP 5.1
HOME · MIN
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Eugenio Suárez 3B
  6. 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
  7. 7 Spencer Steer LF
  8. 8 Will Benson RF
  9. 9 Tyler Stephenson C
HOME · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Austin Martin LF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers DH
  5. 5 Josh Bell 1B
  6. 6 Victor Caratini C
  7. 7 Matt Wallner RF
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 Ryan Kreidler 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
CIN 000200000 2
MIN 000010000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL
HOME · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL

Season series: 3-0 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.74 vs actual lineup 3.81
  • Player execution −1.81 R/G Players fell 1.81 short of the lineup's 3.81 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.75
  • Player execution −3.75 R/G Players fell 3.75 short of the lineup's 4.75 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Keaschall 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.