Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Ben Williamson SS
- 7 Cedric Mullins CF
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Richie Palacios 2B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 6 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution −3.78 R/G Players fell 3.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-3 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.45 vs actual lineup 2.43
- Player execution +2.57 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.43 projection by 2.57 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.55 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Reynolds 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 2.5 — actual was 1 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.