New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Carson Benge RF
- 2 Bo Bichette 3B
- 3 Francisco Lindor SS
- 4 Luis Robert Jr. CF
- 5 Francisco Alvarez C
- 6 MJ Melendez DH
- 7 Marcus Semien 2B
- 8 Brett Baty 1B
- 9 Tyrone Taylor LF
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| CHC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with NYM listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.16 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.58 vs actual lineup 3.42
- Player execution +0.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.42 projection by 0.58 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.42 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Semien 2-for-4 from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.94 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +7.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 7.20 (scored 12)
- Game variance +7.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 4.9 — actual was 4 – 12.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.