St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott CF
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Carlos Correa 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Joey Loperfido LF
- 6 Cam Smith RF
- 7 Taylor Trammell CF
- 8 Christian Vázquez C
- 9 Nick Allen SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.53 vs actual lineup 3.51
- Player execution +5.49 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.51 projection by 5.49 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.79
- Player execution −0.79 R/G Players fell 0.79 short of the lineup's 4.79 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.89 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Vázquez HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.9 — actual was 9 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.