Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 J.P. Crawford SS
- 8 Dominic Canzone DH
- 9 Cole Young 2B
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 7 Miguel Andujar DH
- 8 Luis Campusano C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SD | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.17 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.95 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution −2.78 R/G Players fell 2.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.95 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Naylor 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.70
- Player execution +0.30 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.70 projection by 0.30 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Andujar 2-for-4 from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.