ARCHIVE April 16, 2026
April 16, 2026 · NL Cent

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds

April 16, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 74°F · 11 mph, R To L
AWAY
San Francisco Giants
7-12
3
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
11-8
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SF
Landen Roupp
Landen Roupp
IP 6
HOME · CIN
Chase Burns
Chase Burns
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · SF
  1. 1 Luis Arraez 2B
  2. 2 Willy Adames SS
  3. 3 Rafael Devers 1B
  4. 4 Matt Chapman 3B
  5. 5 Jung Hoo Lee RF
  6. 6 Will Brennan LF
  7. 7 Casey Schmitt DH
  8. 8 Drew Gilbert CF
  9. 9 Patrick Bailey C
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
  6. 6 Spencer Steer LF
  7. 7 Rece Hinds RF
  8. 8 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
  9. 9 P.J. Higgins C

Box score

  123456789 R
SF 000000300 3
CIN 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · SF
Tony Vitello
B- Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · SF
1-8 L2 -25 run diff
LLWLLLLL?L
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Season series: 1-2 with SF listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · San Francisco Giants
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.75 vs actual lineup 2.82
  • Player execution +0.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.82 projection by 0.18 (scored 3)
  • Game variance +0.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Arraez 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −3.14 R/G Players fell 3.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McLain 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 3.1 — actual was 3 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.