Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony RF
- 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 3 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Jarren Duran LF
- 6 Andruw Monasterio 1B
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Josh Bell 1B
- 6 Victor Caratini DH
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Ryan Kreidler 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.20 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.69
- Player execution +4.31 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.69 projection by 4.31 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Kiner-Falefa 2-for-3 from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.11
- Player execution +1.89 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.11 projection by 1.89 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Kreidler HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.1 — actual was 9 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.