ARCHIVE April 15, 2026
April 15, 2026 · NL East

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

April 15, 2026Truist ParkPartly Cloudy 81°F · 5 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
9-10
3
vs
HOME
Atlanta Braves
12-7
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Chris Paddack
Chris Paddack
IP 4.2
HOME · ATL
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Liam Hicks C
  5. 5 Connor Norby DH
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Heriberto Hernández LF
  8. 8 Graham Pauley 3B
  9. 9 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B
HOME · ATL
  1. 1 Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
  2. 2 Drake Baldwin C
  3. 3 Matt Olson 1B
  4. 4 Austin Riley 3B
  5. 5 Ozzie Albies 2B
  6. 6 Mike Yastrzemski LF
  7. 7 Dominic Smith DH
  8. 8 Mauricio Dubón SS
  9. 9 Michael Harris II CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 000000030 3
ATL 020001300 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · ATL
Walt Weiss
C+ Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.2 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · ATL
7-3 L1 +18 run diff
LWLWWWLWWW

Season series: 1-2 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.42 vs actual lineup 2.43
  • Player execution +0.57 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.43 projection by 0.57 (scored 3)
  • Game variance +0.58 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Atlanta Braves
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.88
  • Player execution +1.12 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.88 projection by 1.12 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.4 – 4.9 — actual was 3 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.