Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Adolis García RF
- 5 Brandon Marsh LF
- 6 J.T. Realmuto C
- 7 Bryson Stott 2B
- 8 Edmundo Sosa 3B
- 9 Justin Crawford CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 6-1 with CHC listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.77
- Player execution +5.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 5.23 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Kelly HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.46 vs actual lineup 4.43
- Player execution −0.43 R/G Players fell 0.43 short of the lineup's 4.43 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Sosa HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.5 — actual was 10 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.