Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 3 Jarren Duran LF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Trevor Story SS
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Josh Bell DH
- 6 Victor Caratini 1B
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Ryan Kreidler 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| MIN | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.77
- Player execution +2.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.77 projection by 2.23 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.78 vs actual lineup 2.75
- Player execution +10.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.75 projection by 10.25 (scored 13)
- Game variance +10.22 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Kreidler HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 2.8 — actual was 6 – 13.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.