New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Ben Rice 1B
- 3 Aaron Judge DH
- 4 Cody Bellinger LF
- 5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 6 Randal Grichuk RF
- 7 J.C. Escarra C
- 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 9 José Caballero SS
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Richie Palacios 2B
- 8 Taylor Walls SS
- 9 Hunter Feduccia C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TB | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.37 vs actual lineup 3.38
- Player execution +0.62 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.38 projection by 0.62 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.63 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Grisham 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.38 vs actual lineup 2.39
- Player execution +2.61 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.39 projection by 2.61 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.62 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 2.4 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.