Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 3 Jarren Duran LF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Trevor Story SS
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Ramón Urías 3B
- 7 José Fermín LF
- 8 Thomas Saggese SS
- 9 Victor Scott CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.75
- Player execution +5.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.75 projection by 5.25 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Anthony 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution −1.81 R/G Players fell 1.81 short of the lineup's 4.81 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wetherholt 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.8 — actual was 9 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.