New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger LF
- 4 Ben Rice 1B
- 5 Giancarlo Stanton DH
- 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 7 Austin Wells C
- 8 José Caballero SS
- 9 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Ryan Vilade LF
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Ben Williamson 2B
- 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 7 Cedric Mullins CF
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.58 vs actual lineup 2.54
- Player execution +1.47 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.54 projection by 1.47 (scored 4)
- Game variance +1.42 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wells HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.74 vs actual lineup 2.74
- Player execution +2.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.74 projection by 2.26 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 2.6 – 2.7 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.