Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 3 Jarren Duran LF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Trevor Story SS
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Jordan Walker RF
- 4 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 5 Ramón Urías 1B
- 6 José Fermín LF
- 7 Thomas Saggese SS
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution +2.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 2.15 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Narváez 2-for-4 from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.56 vs actual lineup 3.52
- Player execution −2.52 R/G Players fell 2.52 short of the lineup's 3.52 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Herrera 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 7 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.