ARCHIVE April 11, 2026
April 11, 2026 · AL Cent

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers

April 11, 2026Comerica ParkSunny 52°F · 5 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
8-7
1
vs
HOME
Detroit Tigers
6-9
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
IP 5
HOME · DET
Casey Mize
Casey Mize
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez C
  4. 4 Liam Hicks DH
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Connor Norby 1B
  8. 8 Graham Pauley 3B
  9. 9 Heriberto Hernandez LF
HOME · DET
  1. 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
  2. 2 Wenceel Pérez RF
  3. 3 Colt Keith 3B
  4. 4 Dillon Dingler C
  5. 5 Riley Greene DH
  6. 6 Kerry Carpenter LF
  7. 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  8. 8 Zach McKinstry 2B
  9. 9 Matt Vierling CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 000100000 1
DET 203000010 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL

Season series: 0-3 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.22
  • Player execution −2.22 R/G Players fell 2.22 short of the lineup's 3.22 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.21 vs actual lineup 3.22
  • Player execution +2.78 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.22 projection by 2.78 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Pérez 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.2 — actual was 1 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.