ARCHIVE April 10, 2026
April 10, 2026 · NL Cent

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs

April 10, 2026Wrigley FieldSunny 49°F · 10 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Pittsburgh Pirates
8-5
2
vs
HOME
Chicago Cubs
6-7
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski
Carmen Mlodzinski
IP 5.1
HOME · CHC
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · PIT
  1. 1 Nick Yorke 3B
  2. 2 Ryan O'Hearn 1B
  3. 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
  4. 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
  5. 5 Nick Gonzales 2B
  6. 6 Oneil Cruz CF
  7. 7 Konnor Griffin SS
  8. 8 Joey Bart C
  9. 9 Billy Cook RF
HOME · CHC
  1. 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
  2. 2 Michael Busch 1B
  3. 3 Alex Bregman 3B
  4. 4 Ian Happ LF
  5. 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
  6. 6 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
  7. 7 Carson Kelly C
  8. 8 Moisés Ballesteros DH
  9. 9 Dansby Swanson SS

Box score

  123456789 R
PIT 000000200 2
CHC 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · PIT
Don Kelly
C- Lineup 2.3 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · PIT
5-5 W2 +1 run diff
WWLWWWLLLL
HOME · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
WWWWWWWWWW

Season series: 2-1 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.51 vs actual lineup 3.50
  • Player execution −1.50 R/G Players fell 1.50 short of the lineup's 3.50 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Yorke 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.04 vs actual lineup 4.09
  • Player execution −4.09 R/G Players fell 4.09 short of the lineup's 4.09 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −4.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Busch 0-for-5 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.0 — actual was 2 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.