ARCHIVE April 10, 2026
April 10, 2026 · AL Cent

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers

April 10, 2026Comerica ParkCloudy 52°F · 7 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
8-6
0
vs
HOME
Detroit Tigers
5-9
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Chris Paddack
Chris Paddack
IP 6
HOME · DET
Keider Montero
Keider Montero
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Liam Hicks C
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Connor Norby 1B
  8. 8 Graham Pauley 3B
  9. 9 Javier Sanoja LF
HOME · DET
  1. 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Colt Keith 3B
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Dillon Dingler C
  6. 6 Kerry Carpenter DH
  7. 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  8. 8 Wenceel Pérez RF
  9. 9 Javier Báez CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 000000000 0
DET 010010000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL

Season series: 0-3 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.86 vs actual lineup 3.88
  • Player execution −3.88 R/G Players fell 3.88 short of the lineup's 3.88 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.75
  • Player execution −2.75 R/G Players fell 2.75 short of the lineup's 4.75 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.89 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Báez HR from the 9-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.9 — actual was 0 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.