Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ketel Marte 2B
- 2 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
- 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 4 Gabriel Moreno C
- 5 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 6 Jose Fernandez DH
- 7 Tim Tawa LF
- 8 Alek Thomas CF
- 9 Jorge Barrosa RF
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Brandon Marsh LF
- 5 Bryson Stott 2B
- 6 Adolis García RF
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 J.T. Realmuto C
- 9 Justin Crawford CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.15 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.70
- Player execution +0.30 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.70 projection by 0.30 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.25 vs actual lineup 3.26
- Player execution +0.74 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.26 projection by 0.74 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.75 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Schwarber 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.3 — actual was 5 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.