Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl LF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez 3B
- 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 7 Spencer Steer RF
- 8 Dane Myers CF
- 9 P.J. Higgins C
- 1 Jakob Marsee DH
- 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 3 Agustín Ramírez C
- 4 Liam Hicks 1B
- 5 Otto Lopez SS
- 6 Owen Caissie RF
- 7 Griffin Conine LF
- 8 Javier Sanoja CF
- 9 Graham Pauley 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-2 with CIN listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.51 vs actual lineup 3.56
- Player execution −2.56 R/G Players fell 2.56 short of the lineup's 3.56 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.52 vs actual lineup 3.48
- Player execution +4.52 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.48 projection by 4.52 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.5 — actual was 1 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.