San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Miguel Andujar 3B
- 7 Nick Castellanos DH
- 8 Luis Campusano C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds RF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn DH
- 5 Nick Yorke 3B
- 6 Nick Gonzales SS
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Joey Bart C
- 9 Jake Mangum LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with SD listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.11 vs actual lineup 3.07
- Player execution +4.93 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.07 projection by 4.93 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.89 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cronenworth HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.80 vs actual lineup 2.69
- Player execution −0.69 R/G Players fell 0.69 short of the lineup's 2.69 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 2.8 — actual was 8 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.