St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Thomas Saggese LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 James Wood LF
- 2 Curtis Mead 1B
- 3 Brady House 3B
- 4 Daylen Lile DH
- 5 Joey Wiemer RF
- 6 CJ Abrams SS
- 7 Jacob Young CF
- 8 Nasim Nuñez 2B
- 9 Keibert Ruiz C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with STL listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.85 vs actual lineup 3.86
- Player execution +3.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.86 projection by 3.14 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Church HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.07 vs actual lineup 4.09
- Player execution +1.91 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.09 projection by 1.91 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.1 — actual was 7 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.