ARCHIVE April 7, 2026
April 7, 2026 · NL East

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

April 7, 2026Nationals ParkClear 51°F · 14 mph, In From LF
AWAY
St. Louis Cardinals
6-5
7
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · STL
Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore
IP 5
HOME · WSH
Cade Cavalli
Cade Cavalli
IP 4.2

Lineups

AWAY · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Thomas Saggese LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood LF
  2. 2 Curtis Mead 1B
  3. 3 Brady House 3B
  4. 4 Daylen Lile DH
  5. 5 Joey Wiemer RF
  6. 6 CJ Abrams SS
  7. 7 Jacob Young CF
  8. 8 Nasim Nuñez 2B
  9. 9 Keibert Ruiz C

Box score

  12345678910 R
STL 2000001202 7
WSH 1010210001 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
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HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
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Season series: 1-0 with STL listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.85 vs actual lineup 3.86
  • Player execution +3.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.86 projection by 3.14 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Church HR from the 9-hole

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.07 vs actual lineup 4.09
  • Player execution +1.91 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.09 projection by 1.91 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.1 — actual was 7 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.