ARCHIVE April 5, 2026
April 5, 2026 · AL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins

April 5, 2026Target FieldPartly Cloudy 50°F · 13 mph, R To L
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
4-5
4
vs
HOME
Minnesota Twins
3-6
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
IP 6
HOME · MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson
IP 6.2

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Chandler Simpson LF
  4. 4 Junior Caminero 3B
  5. 5 Cedric Mullins CF
  6. 6 Ben Williamson SS
  7. 7 Richie Palacios 2B
  8. 8 Jonny DeLuca RF
  9. 9 Hunter Feduccia C
HOME · MIN
  1. 1 Kody Clemens 1B
  2. 2 Byron Buxton DH
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Matt Wallner RF
  5. 5 Ryan Jeffers C
  6. 6 Trevor Larnach LF
  7. 7 Austin Martin CF
  8. 8 Tristan Gray 3B
  9. 9 Brooks Lee SS

Box score

  12345678910 R
TB 0001000003 4
MIN 0100000000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL

Season series: 3-0 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.82
  • Player execution −0.82 R/G Players fell 0.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.72 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Palacios HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.44
  • Player execution −1.44 R/G Players fell 1.44 short of the lineup's 2.44 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Clemens 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 2.4 — actual was 4 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.