San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Miguel Andujar DH
- 6 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 7 Nick Castellanos 1B
- 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 9 Luis Campusano C
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Jarren Duran CF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Masataka Yoshida LF
- 7 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 8 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 9 Carlos Narváez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.04 vs actual lineup 3.06
- Player execution +4.94 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.06 projection by 4.94 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.96 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Laureano 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.83
- Player execution +1.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.83 projection by 1.17 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Anthony 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.0 – 4.9 — actual was 8 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.