St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Thomas Saggese SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott CF
- 1 Colt Keith DH
- 2 Kevin McGonigle 3B
- 3 Gleyber Torres 2B
- 4 Kerry Carpenter RF
- 5 Riley Greene LF
- 6 Dillon Dingler C
- 7 Parker Meadows CF
- 8 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 9 Javier Báez SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.77 vs actual lineup 3.77
- Player execution +1.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.77 projection by 1.23 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Burleson 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.20 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.96 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution −1.76 R/G Players fell 1.76 short of the lineup's 4.76 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.96 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McGonigle 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 5.0 — actual was 5 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.