San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Fernando Tatis RF
- 2 Ramón Laureano LF
- 3 Miguel Andujar DH
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Freddy Fermin C
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 9 Bryce Johnson CF
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Jarren Duran LF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.70 vs actual lineup 3.69
- Player execution −0.69 R/G Players fell 0.69 short of the lineup's 3.69 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.70 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.14
- Player execution −1.14 R/G Players fell 1.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Story 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 3.2 — actual was 3 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.