ARCHIVE April 4, 2026
April 4, 2026 · AL Cent

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals

April 4, 2026Kauffman StadiumPartly Cloudy 55°F · 15 mph, L To RGame 2 of doubleheader
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
6-2
2
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
4-4
8

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
IP 3.2
HOME · KC
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
IP 5

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 002000000 2
KC 020006000 8

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.04 vs actual lineup 3.02
  • Player execution −1.02 R/G Players fell 1.02 short of the lineup's 3.02 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bauers 0-for-4 batting 4th

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.76
  • Player execution +3.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 3.24 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jr. 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.0 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 8.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.