Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Junior Caminero 3B
- 4 Jake Fraley RF
- 5 Nick Fortes C
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Ben Williamson 2B
- 8 Chandler Simpson LF
- 9 Carson Williams SS
- 1 Kody Clemens 1B
- 2 Byron Buxton CF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Matt Wallner RF
- 5 Josh Bell DH
- 6 Ryan Jeffers C
- 7 Trevor Larnach LF
- 8 Royce Lewis 3B
- 9 Tristan Gray SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.76
- Player execution +0.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.76 projection by 0.24 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-5 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +5.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 5.24 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Gray HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.7 — actual was 4 – 10.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.