ARCHIVE April 3, 2026
April 3, 2026 · NL West

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies

April 3, 2026Coors FieldSunny 51°F · 19 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Philadelphia Phillies
4-3
10
vs
HOME
Colorado Rockies
2-5
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · PHI
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
IP 6.1
HOME · COL
Valente Bellozo
Valente Bellozo
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Bryson Stott 2B
  6. 6 Adolis García RF
  7. 7 Brandon Marsh LF
  8. 8 J.T. Realmuto C
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF
HOME · COL
  1. 1 Troy Johnston DH
  2. 2 Hunter Goodman C
  3. 3 Mickey Moniak RF
  4. 4 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
  6. 6 Willi Castro 2B
  7. 7 Brenton Doyle CF
  8. 8 Jake McCarthy LF
  9. 9 Kyle Karros 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
PHI 711010000 10
COL 000100000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim
HOME · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R

Recent form

AWAY · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
LLWWWWLWWW
HOME · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW

Season series: 0-1 with PHI listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.17 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.96 vs actual lineup 4.79
  • Player execution +5.21 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.79 projection by 5.21 (scored 10)
  • Game variance +5.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsh HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.66
  • Player execution −3.66 R/G Players fell 3.66 short of the lineup's 4.66 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Goodman 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 4.7 — actual was 10 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.