ARCHIVE April 3, 2026
April 3, 2026 · AL East

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees

April 3, 2026Yankee StadiumPartly Cloudy 58°F · 8 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Miami Marlins
5-2
2
vs
HOME
New York Yankees
6-1
8

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIA
Eury Pérez
Eury Pérez
IP 4
HOME · NYY
Will Warren
Will Warren
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Liam Hicks C
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Connor Norby 1B
  8. 8 Griffin Conine LF
  9. 9 Graham Pauley 3B
HOME · NYY
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Aaron Judge RF
  3. 3 Cody Bellinger LF
  4. 4 Ben Rice 1B
  5. 5 Giancarlo Stanton DH
  6. 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  7. 7 Austin Wells C
  8. 8 José Caballero SS
  9. 9 Ryan McMahon 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIA 100010000 2
NYY 220001120 8

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · NYY
Aaron Boone
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW
HOME · NYY
7-3 L1 +26 run diff
LWLWWWWWLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.17
  • Player execution −1.17 R/G Players fell 1.17 short of the lineup's 3.17 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · New York Yankees
  • Manager lineup cost −0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.52 vs actual lineup 4.64
  • Player execution +3.36 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.64 projection by 3.36 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.5 — actual was 2 – 8.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.