ARCHIVE April 3, 2026
April 3, 2026 · AL West

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels

April 3, 2026Angel StadiumPartly Cloudy 77°F · 12 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Seattle Mariners
4-4
3
vs
HOME
Los Angeles Angels
3-5
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SEA
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo
IP 7
HOME · LAA
Reid Detmers
Reid Detmers
IP 6.2

Lineups

AWAY · SEA
  1. 1 Rob Refsnyder DH
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Brendan Donovan 3B
  7. 7 J.P. Crawford SS
  8. 8 Victor Robles RF
  9. 9 Cole Young 2B
HOME · LAA
  1. 1 Zach Neto SS
  2. 2 Mike Trout CF
  3. 3 Nolan Schanuel 1B
  4. 4 Jorge Soler DH
  5. 5 Yoán Moncada 3B
  6. 6 Jo Adell RF
  7. 7 Josh Lowe LF
  8. 8 Logan O'Hoppe C
  9. 9 Oswald Peraza 2B

Box score

  12345678910 R
SEA 0000000003 3
LAA 0000000001 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · LAA
Kurt Suzuki
C Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 2.0 R IBBs 2.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL
HOME · LAA
3-7 L1 -10 run diff
LWWLLWLLLL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.13 vs actual lineup 4.20
  • Player execution −1.20 R/G Players fell 1.20 short of the lineup's 4.20 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Refsnyder 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Los Angeles Angels
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.78 vs actual lineup 3.74
  • Player execution −2.74 R/G Players fell 2.74 short of the lineup's 3.74 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Neto 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 3.8 — actual was 3 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.