ARCHIVE April 1, 2026
April 1, 2026 · NL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers

April 1, 2026American Family FieldRoof Closed 62°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
2-4
2
vs
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers
5-1
8

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
IP 5
HOME · MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Jake Fraley RF
  4. 4 Junior Caminero 3B
  5. 5 Cedric Mullins CF
  6. 6 Nick Fortes C
  7. 7 Chandler Simpson LF
  8. 8 Ben Williamson SS
  9. 9 Richie Palacios 2B
HOME · MIL
  1. 1 Brice Turang 2B
  2. 2 William Contreras C
  3. 3 Christian Yelich DH
  4. 4 Jake Bauers 1B
  5. 5 Garrett Mitchell CF
  6. 6 Sal Frelick RF
  7. 7 Blake Perkins LF
  8. 8 David Hamilton 3B
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 002000000 2
MIL 002000060 8

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.04
  • Player execution −1.04 R/G Players fell 1.04 short of the lineup's 3.04 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caminero 0-for-4 batting 4th

HOME · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.09 vs actual lineup 3.13
  • Player execution +4.87 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.13 projection by 4.87 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +4.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bauers 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.1 — actual was 2 – 8.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.