Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Cedric Mullins CF
- 6 Nick Fortes C
- 7 Chandler Simpson LF
- 8 Ben Williamson SS
- 9 Richie Palacios 2B
- 1 Brice Turang 2B
- 2 William Contreras C
- 3 Christian Yelich DH
- 4 Jake Bauers 1B
- 5 Garrett Mitchell CF
- 6 Sal Frelick RF
- 7 Blake Perkins LF
- 8 David Hamilton 3B
- 9 Joey Ortiz SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.04
- Player execution −1.04 R/G Players fell 1.04 short of the lineup's 3.04 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Caminero 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.09 vs actual lineup 3.13
- Player execution +4.87 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.13 projection by 4.87 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bauers 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.1 — actual was 2 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.