ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · NL East

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins

March 31, 2026loanDepot parkPartly Cloudy 77°F · 13 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Chicago White Sox
1-4
2
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
4-1
9

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CWS
Erick Fedde
Erick Fedde
IP 5
HOME · MIA
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
IP 4.1

Lineups

AWAY · CWS
  1. 1 Chase Meidroth 2B
  2. 2 Munetaka Murakami 1B
  3. 3 Andrew Benintendi DH
  4. 4 Colson Montgomery SS
  5. 5 Miguel Vargas 3B
  6. 6 Austin Hays LF
  7. 7 Tristan Peters RF
  8. 8 Edgar Quero C
  9. 9 Luisangel Acuña CF
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez C
  4. 4 Liam Hicks 1B
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie DH
  7. 7 Heriberto Hernández LF
  8. 8 Griffin Conine RF
  9. 9 Graham Pauley 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
CWS 002000000 2
MIA 000400230 9

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · CWS
Will Venable
D- Lineup 3.2 R Bunts 2.2 R IBBs 1.1 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · CWS
6-4 L3 +9 run diff
LLLWLWWWWW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Chicago White Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.21 vs actual lineup 3.15
  • Player execution −1.15 R/G Players fell 1.15 short of the lineup's 3.15 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Meidroth 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.54 vs actual lineup 3.49
  • Player execution +5.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 5.51 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +5.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Conine HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.5 — actual was 2 – 9.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.