Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jake Mangum RF
- 2 Ryan O'Hearn 1B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 6 Nick Gonzales SS
- 7 Joey Bart C
- 8 Oneil Cruz CF
- 9 Nick Yorke 3B
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Will Benson LF
- 7 Noelvi Marte RF
- 8 Jose Trevino C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.16 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.73
- Player execution +3.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 3.27 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cruz HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.32 vs actual lineup 4.31
- Player execution −1.30 R/G Players fell 1.30 short of the lineup's 4.31 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.3 — actual was 8 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.