ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · NL East

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

March 31, 2026Citizens Bank ParkPartly Cloudy 78°F · 16 mph, Out To CF
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · WSH
Zack Littell
Zack Littell
IP 5
HOME · PHI
Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Luis García Jr. 1B
  3. 3 CJ Abrams SS
  4. 4 Daylen Lile LF
  5. 5 Jorbit Vivas 3B
  6. 6 Keibert Ruiz C
  7. 7 José Tena DH
  8. 8 Joey Wiemer CF
  9. 9 Nasim Nuñez 2B
HOME · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Bryson Stott 2B
  6. 6 Adolis García RF
  7. 7 Brandon Marsh LF
  8. 8 J.T. Realmuto C
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF

Box score

  123456789 R
WSH 000001100 2
PHI 001110000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
LLWWWWLWWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.85
  • Player execution −2.85 R/G Players fell 2.85 short of the lineup's 4.85 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jr. 0-for-4 batting 2nd

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.94 vs actual lineup 4.95
  • Player execution −1.95 R/G Players fell 1.95 short of the lineup's 4.95 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.94 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bohm 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.9 — actual was 2 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.