ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · AL Cent

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals

March 30, 2026Kauffman StadiumSunny 85°F · 18 mph, R To L
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
1-3
1
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
2-2
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson
IP 5
HOME · KC
Kris Bubic
Kris Bubic
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Austin Martin LF
  2. 2 Byron Buxton CF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers C
  5. 5 Matt Wallner RF
  6. 6 Josh Bell DH
  7. 7 Victor Caratini 1B
  8. 8 Royce Lewis 3B
  9. 9 Brooks Lee SS
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez C
  5. 5 Carter Jensen DH
  6. 6 Jonathan India 2B
  7. 7 Jac Caglianone RF
  8. 8 Isaac Collins LF
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 010000000 1
KC 020000100 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.80 vs actual lineup 3.84
  • Player execution −2.84 R/G Players fell 2.84 short of the lineup's 3.84 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Buxton 0-for-4 batting 2nd

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.16 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.67
  • Player execution −1.67 R/G Players fell 1.67 short of the lineup's 4.67 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Collins HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.