ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · AL East

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays

March 30, 2026Rogers CentreRoof Closed 68°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
1-3
14
vs
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays
3-1
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Tomoyuki Sugano
Tomoyuki Sugano
IP 4.2
HOME · TOR
Cody Ponce
Cody Ponce
IP 2.1

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jake McCarthy CF
  2. 2 Hunter Goodman C
  3. 3 Willi Castro 2B
  4. 4 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
  6. 6 Troy Johnston RF
  7. 7 Jordan Beck LF
  8. 8 Kyle Karros 3B
  9. 9 Edouard Julien DH
HOME · TOR
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Jesús Sánchez LF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Addison Barger RF
  5. 5 Alejandro Kirk C
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho CF
  7. 7 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  8. 8 Ernie Clement 2B
  9. 9 Andrés Giménez SS

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 001107041 14
TOR 001000031 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.73 vs actual lineup 3.65
  • Player execution +10.35 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.65 projection by 10.35 (scored 14)
  • Game variance +10.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Fulford HR from the 9-hole

HOME · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.01 vs actual lineup 3.08
  • Player execution +1.92 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.08 projection by 1.92 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.99 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Okamoto HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 3.0 — actual was 14 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.