ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · NL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers

March 30, 2026American Family FieldRoof Closed 64°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
2-2
3
vs
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers
3-1
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
IP 6
HOME · MIL
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Ryan Vilade RF
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Junior Caminero 3B
  5. 5 Ben Williamson 2B
  6. 6 Jonny DeLuca CF
  7. 7 Nick Fortes C
  8. 8 Chandler Simpson LF
  9. 9 Carson Williams SS
HOME · MIL
  1. 1 Brice Turang 2B
  2. 2 William Contreras C
  3. 3 Christian Yelich DH
  4. 4 Luis Rengifo 3B
  5. 5 Jake Bauers 1B
  6. 6 Sal Frelick RF
  7. 7 Garrett Mitchell CF
  8. 8 David Hamilton SS
  9. 9 Brandon Lockridge LF

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 100000101 3
MIL 000002000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.76 vs actual lineup 2.74
  • Player execution +0.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.74 projection by 0.26 (scored 3)
  • Game variance +0.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Aranda 0-for-3 batting 3rd

HOME · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.43
  • Player execution −0.43 R/G Players fell 0.43 short of the lineup's 2.43 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Yelich 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 2.4 — actual was 3 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.