Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Ryan Vilade RF
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Ben Williamson 2B
- 6 Jonny DeLuca CF
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Chandler Simpson LF
- 9 Carson Williams SS
- 1 Brice Turang 2B
- 2 William Contreras C
- 3 Christian Yelich DH
- 4 Luis Rengifo 3B
- 5 Jake Bauers 1B
- 6 Sal Frelick RF
- 7 Garrett Mitchell CF
- 8 David Hamilton SS
- 9 Brandon Lockridge LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.76 vs actual lineup 2.74
- Player execution +0.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.74 projection by 0.26 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Aranda 0-for-3 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.43
- Player execution −0.43 R/G Players fell 0.43 short of the lineup's 2.43 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Yelich 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 2.4 — actual was 3 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.