Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 6 Jared Triolo SS
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 9 Henry Davis C
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Will Benson RF
- 8 Tyler Stephenson C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 3.12
- Player execution −3.12 R/G Players fell 3.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −3.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cruz 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.74 vs actual lineup 3.71
- Player execution −1.71 R/G Players fell 1.71 short of the lineup's 3.71 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.74 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.7 — actual was 0 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.