ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · NL East

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

March 30, 2026Citizens Bank ParkCloudy 67°F · 16 mph, Out To CF
AWAY
Washington Nationals
3-1
13
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · WSH
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin
IP 5
HOME · PHI
Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker
IP 4.2

Lineups

AWAY · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Luis García Jr. 1B
  3. 3 Brady House 3B
  4. 4 Daylen Lile LF
  5. 5 CJ Abrams SS
  6. 6 Drew Millas C
  7. 7 José Tena DH
  8. 8 Jorbit Vivas 2B
  9. 9 Joey Wiemer CF
HOME · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Adolis García RF
  6. 6 Edmundo Sosa 2B
  7. 7 Otto Kemp LF
  8. 8 Brandon Marsh CF
  9. 9 Rafael Marchán C

Box score

  123456789 R
WSH 412002004 13
PHI 000020000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.85
  • Player execution +8.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 8.15 (scored 13)
  • Game variance +8.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Tena 3-for-5 from the 7-hole

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.21 vs actual lineup 3.22
  • Player execution −1.22 R/G Players fell 1.22 short of the lineup's 3.22 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marchán HR from the 9-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.2 — actual was 13 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.