ARCHIVE March 28, 2026
March 28, 2026 · NL East

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies

March 28, 2026Citizens Bank ParkSunny 45°F · 18 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Texas Rangers
1-1
5
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TEX
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz
IP 4
HOME · PHI
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · TEX
  1. 1 Brandon Nimmo RF
  2. 2 Wyatt Langford LF
  3. 3 Corey Seager SS
  4. 4 Jake Burger 1B
  5. 5 Joc Pederson DH
  6. 6 Josh Smith 2B
  7. 7 Josh Jung 3B
  8. 8 Evan Carter CF
  9. 9 Danny Jansen C
HOME · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Bryson Stott 2B
  6. 6 Adolis García RF
  7. 7 Brandon Marsh LF
  8. 8 J.T. Realmuto C
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF

Box score

  12345678910 R
TEX 1020000002 5
PHI 0000000031 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TEX
Skip Schumaker
B- Lineup 1.0 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 0.9 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · TEX
3-7 L2 -20 run diff
LLWLLLWWLL
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Texas Rangers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.77
  • Player execution +0.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 0.23 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.49 vs actual lineup 2.42
  • Player execution +1.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.42 projection by 1.58 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +1.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Turner 0-for-5 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 2.5 — actual was 5 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.