ARCHIVE March 27, 2026
March 27, 2026 · NL West

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres

March 27, 2026Petco ParkPartly Cloudy 66°F · 7 mph, L To R
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
2-0
5
vs
HOME
San Diego Padres
0-2
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez
IP 6
HOME · SD
Michael King
Michael King
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Kerry Carpenter RF
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres DH
  3. 3 Zach McKinstry 2B
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  6. 6 Kevin McGonigle 3B
  7. 7 Dillon Dingler C
  8. 8 Parker Meadows CF
  9. 9 Javier Báez SS
HOME · SD
  1. 1 Fernando Tatis RF
  2. 2 Xander Bogaerts SS
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Jackson Merrill CF
  5. 5 Miguel Andujar DH
  6. 6 Ramón Laureano LF
  7. 7 Ty France 1B
  8. 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B
  9. 9 Luis Campusano C

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 000001040 5
SD 000101000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · SD
Craig Stammen
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.2 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · SD
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWWLWLLLLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.80 vs actual lineup 2.79
  • Player execution +2.21 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.79 projection by 2.21 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +2.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Carpenter 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · San Diego Padres
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.26 vs actual lineup 4.28
  • Player execution −2.28 R/G Players fell 2.28 short of the lineup's 4.28 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jr. 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 4.3 — actual was 5 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.