Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Austin Martin LF
- 2 Byron Buxton CF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Matt Wallner RF
- 6 Josh Bell DH
- 7 Victor Caratini 1B
- 8 Royce Lewis 3B
- 9 Brooks Lee SS
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Adley Rutschman C
- 5 Samuel Basallo DH
- 6 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 7 Colton Cowser CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Blaze Alexander 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.38 vs actual lineup 4.36
- Player execution −3.36 R/G Players fell 3.36 short of the lineup's 4.36 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.38 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.98 vs actual lineup 3.96
- Player execution −1.96 R/G Players fell 1.96 short of the lineup's 3.96 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ward 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 4.0 — actual was 1 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.