ARCHIVE March 26, 2026
March 26, 2026 · AL East

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

March 26, 2026Oriole Park at Camden YardsPartly Cloudy 77°F · 10 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
0-1
1
vs
HOME
Baltimore Orioles
1-0
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
IP 5.1
HOME · BAL
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Austin Martin LF
  2. 2 Byron Buxton CF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers C
  5. 5 Matt Wallner RF
  6. 6 Josh Bell DH
  7. 7 Victor Caratini 1B
  8. 8 Royce Lewis 3B
  9. 9 Brooks Lee SS
HOME · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Adley Rutschman C
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo DH
  6. 6 Tyler O'Neill RF
  7. 7 Colton Cowser CF
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 3B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 000000010 1
BAL 000000200 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
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HOME · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.38 vs actual lineup 4.36
  • Player execution −3.36 R/G Players fell 3.36 short of the lineup's 4.36 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.38 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.98 vs actual lineup 3.96
  • Player execution −1.96 R/G Players fell 1.96 short of the lineup's 3.96 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ward 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 4.0 — actual was 1 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.