Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Ryan Vilade LF
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Ben Williamson 2B
- 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Cedric Mullins CF
- 9 Carson Williams SS
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Masyn Winn SS
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Jordan Walker RF
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.00 vs actual lineup 4.08
- Player execution +2.92 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.08 projection by 2.92 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.22 vs actual lineup 3.14
- Player execution +5.86 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.14 projection by 5.86 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.78 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Herrera 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.2 — actual was 7 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.