ARCHIVE March 26, 2026
March 26, 2026 · NL Cent

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs

March 26, 2026Wrigley FieldCloudy 49°F · 22 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Washington Nationals
1-0
10
vs
HOME
Chicago Cubs
0-1
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · WSH
Cade Cavalli
Cade Cavalli
IP 3.2
HOME · CHC
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
IP 3.2

Lineups

AWAY · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood LF
  2. 2 Andrés Chaparro 1B
  3. 3 Brady House 3B
  4. 4 Daylen Lile DH
  5. 5 Joey Wiemer RF
  6. 6 CJ Abrams SS
  7. 7 Nasim Nuñez 2B
  8. 8 Keibert Ruiz C
  9. 9 Jacob Young CF
HOME · CHC
  1. 1 Michael Busch 1B
  2. 2 Alex Bregman 3B
  3. 3 Ian Happ LF
  4. 4 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
  5. 5 Nico Hoerner 2B
  6. 6 Carson Kelly C
  7. 7 Moisés Ballesteros DH
  8. 8 Dansby Swanson SS
  9. 9 Matt Shaw RF

Box score

  123456789 R
WSH 010601002 10
CHC 002100100 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL
HOME · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.78
  • Player execution +5.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.78 projection by 5.22 (scored 10)
  • Game variance +5.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Young HR from the 9-hole

HOME · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.85 vs actual lineup 3.77
  • Player execution +0.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.77 projection by 0.23 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +0.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.9 — actual was 10 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.