PITCHER MATCHUP

Zebby Matthews vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zebby Matthews's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zebby Matthews's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .362vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Slider 23%Cutter 13%Changeup 11%Curveball 9%Sinker 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zebby Matthews, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-19 game page →