PITCHER MATCHUP

Zebby Matthews vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zebby Matthews's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zebby Matthews's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .350vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Slider 24%Cutter 13%Changeup 12%Curveball 9%Sinker 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zebby Matthews, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.