PITCHER MATCHUP

Zebby Matthews vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zebby Matthews's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zebby Matthews's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .359vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Slider 24%Cutter 13%Changeup 11%Curveball 9%Sinker 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zebby Matthews, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-29 game page →