PITCHER MATCHUP

Zebby Matthews vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zebby Matthews's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zebby Matthews's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Slider 23%Cutter 13%Changeup 11%Curveball 9%Sinker 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zebby Matthews, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .412
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .436 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.