PITCHER MATCHUP

Zack Wheeler vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Zack Wheeler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Zack Wheeler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .225Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sinker 17%Sweeper 14%Splitter 10%Cutter 10%Curveball 9%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Zack Wheeler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →